Rail Capacity Report – 11/8-11/14/2022

Observations for Week 11/8-11/14/2022

• The 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 25.4 trains/day, below the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
• The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for only 2 out of 7 days during this past week.
• During the week ended 11/14/2022, the 7 day moving average for total trains declined by 2.2 trains/day from the previous week, falling from 27.6 to 25.4 trains/day.

We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest.

For the past week, the railways moved 7.1 grain trains/day, a decline from the high of about 9 grain trains/day achieved earlier in October, but still well above the required average.

However, intermodal (6.4 trains/day), coal (4.0 trains/day), potash (1.0 trains/day), and other traffic (0.7 trains/day) were all below their long-term average levels as of 11/14/22. Only petroleum traffic increased during the past week, rising from 1.4 trains/day as of 11/7 to 2.3 trains/day as of 11/14 (slightly above its long-term average level.) Petroleum, grain, and manifest trains (3.9 trains/day) were the only categories moving at rates above their long-term average level as of 11/14/22.

We will continue to monitor the corridor to Vancouver during the grain season and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.

Subscribe to our blog for updates every Wednesday.