Observations for Week 11/29-12/5/2022
- The 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 26.0 trains/day, just above the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
- The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for 6 of the 7 days during this past week.
- During the week ended 12/5/2022, the 7 day moving average for total trains decreased by 1.9 trains/day from the previous week, from 27.9 to 26.0 trains/day.
We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest. For the past week, the railways moved 9.0 grain trains/day, below the high of 9.4 grain trains/day achieved in October, but well above the required average.
However, during the week ending 12/5/22, six of the seven categories of rail traffic we track (i.e., all categories other than grain traffic) were below their long-term average levels. Intermodal (6.3 trains/day), coal (3.4 trains/day), and potash (1.4 trains/day) were all below their long-term average levels for the fourth week in a row (although potash traffic did see slight increases during the week ended 12/5/22.) Manifest train traffic decreased significantly during the week ended 12/5/22, falling from 4.3 trains/day as of 11/28/22 to 3.0 trains/day as of 12/5. Petroleum traffic fell slightly to 2.0 trains/day, and was below its long-term average for the second week in a row. Other traffic fell slightly to 0.9 trains/day.
We will continue to monitor the corridor to Vancouver during the grain season and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.
Subscribe to our blog for updates every Wednesday.