Rail Capacity Report – 12/6-12/12/2022

Observations for Week 12/6-12/12/2022

• The 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 27.1 trains/day, above the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
• The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for all 7 days during this past week.
• During the week ended 12/12/2022, the 7 day moving average for total trains increased by 1.1 trains/day from the previous week, from 26.0 to 27.1 trains/day.

We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest.

For the past week, the railways moved 7.7 grain trains/day, below the high of 9.4 grain trains/day achieved in October, but well above the required average.

However, during the week ending 12/12/22, three of the seven categories of rail traffic we track were below their long-term average levels. Intermodal (6.1 trains/day), coal (4.6 trains/day), and potash (1.1 trains/day) were all below their long-term average levels for the fifth week in a row (although coal traffic did increase by 1.3 trains/day during the week ending 12/12/22.) Manifest train traffic also increased significantly during the week ended 12/12/22, rising from 3.0 trains/day as of 12/5/22 to 4.0 trains/day as of 12/12. Petroleum traffic increased by 0.6 trains/day, to 2.6 trains/day. Other traffic also rose slightly, to 1.0 trains/day.

We will continue to monitor the corridor to Vancouver during the grain season and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.

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