Observations for Week 11/1-11/7/2022
- For most of 2022 the railways’ train volume has been below the amount required to move the current grain harvest.
- At the end of this past week (11/1-11/7/2022), the 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 27.6 trains/day, above the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
- The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for all 7 days during this past week.
- As of 11/7/2022, the 7 day moving average for total trains was the same as it was on 10/31, at 27.6 trains/day.
Summary
For the past seven weeks, the railways have appeared to be doing well with movement toward Vancouver. Total train volume is above the 25.7 trains/day required to move the current grain harvest, and the typical volume of other commodities. Most of the additional trains above the year-to-date average are grain trains.
We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest. For the past week, the railways moved 7.6 grain trains/day, a decline from the high of about 9 grain trains/day achieved earlier in October, but still well above the required average. For the third week in a row, the volume of coal trains (5.0 trains/day) was close to its long-term average of 5 trains/day, rather than being significantly below average, as was the case earlier this fall.
In addition to grain, manifest and coal traffic are at or above their long-term average levels. As of 11/7, the intermodal and potash traffic was slightly below the long-term averages for those categories, at 6.7 trains/day and 1.3 trains/day, respectively. However, it’s important to note that Petroleum traffic declined significantly over the week ending 11/7, falling from an average of 2.4 trains/day as of 10/31 to only 1.4 trains/day as of 11/7 (significantly below the long-term average of 2.2 trains/day.)
We will continue to monitor the Grain Harvest in Canada on a weekly basis, and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.
Subscribe to our blog for updates every Wednesday.