Rail Capacity Report – 10/25-10/31/2022

Observations for Week 10/25-10/31/2022

• For most of 2022 the railways’ train volume has been below the amount required to move the current grain harvest.
• At the end of this past week (10/25-10/31/2022), the 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 27.6 trains/day, above the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
• The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for all 7 days during this past week.
• Over the past week, the 7 day moving average for total trains decreased by 1.0 trains/day, from 28.6 trains/day on 10/24 to 27.6 trains/day on 10/31.

Summary
For the past six weeks, the railways have appeared to be doing well with movement toward Vancouver. Total train volume is above the 25.7 trains/day required to move the current grain harvest, and the typical volume of other commodities. Most of the additional trains above the year-to-date average are grain trains.

We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest. For the past week, the railways moved 7.6 grain trains/day, a decline from the high of about 9 grain trains/day achieved earlier in October, but still well above the required average. For the second week in a row, the volume of coal trains (4.9 trains/day) was close to its long-term average of 5 trains/day, rather than being significantly below average, as was the case earlier this fall. Currently, all types of rail traffic are at or above their long-term average levels, except for potash and other traffic, which are slightly below their long-term averages. (The “other” category of traffic includes auto trains, sulfur, maintenance of way trains, light locomotives, etc.)

We will continue to monitor the Grain Harvest in Canada on a weekly basis, and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.

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