Rail Capacity Report – 10/18-10/24/2022

Observations for Week 10/18-10/24/2022

• For most of 2022 the railways’ train volume has been below the amount required to move the current grain harvest.
• At the end of this past week (10/18-10/24/2022), the 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 28.6 trains/day, above the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
• The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for all 7 days during this past week.
• Over the past week, the 7 day moving average for total trains increased by 2.0 trains/day, increasing from 26.6 trains/day on 10/17 to 28.6 trains/day on 10/24.

Summary
For the past five weeks, the railways have appeared to be doing well with movement toward Vancouver. Total train volume is above the 25.7 trains/day required to move the current grain harvest, and the typical volume of other commodities. Most of the additional trains above the year-to-date average are grain trains.

We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest. For the past week, the railways moved 8.7 grain trains/day, close to the high of about 9 grain trains/day that was achieved in early October. For the first time in five weeks, the volume of coal trains (4.9 trains/day) was close to its long-term average of 5 trains/day, rather than being significantly below average, as was the case earlier this fall.

We will continue to monitor the Grain Harvest in Canada on a weekly basis, and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.

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