Observations for Holiday Season 12/20/2022-1/2/2023:
- The 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 14.4 trains/day as of 12/26/2022 and 23.7 trains day as of 1/2/2023, both below the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest and the typical volume of other commodities.
- The moving average number of trains/day was at or below 25.7 trains/day for all 14 days during the past two weeks. In addition to the holiday, a reduction in demand likely also contributed to the reduced train volume.
We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest. The railways moved an average of 4.0 grain trains/day during the week ending 12/26/2022, and 6.1 grain trains/day during the week ending 1/2/2023, close to the required average for the holiday season overall.
As of 1/2/2023, rail traffic in three of the seven categories we track was above its long-term average level (grain at 6.1 trains/day, manifest at 3.9 trains/day, and petroleum at 3.0 trains/day.) Other traffic was near its long-term average level of 1.0 trains/day. Intermodal traffic (5.0 trains/day), coal (3.6 trains/day), and potash (1.1 trains/day) were all below their long-term average levels for the eighth week in a row.
We will continue to monitor the corridor to Vancouver during the grain season and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.
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