Observations for Week 12/13-12/19/2022
- The 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 26.6 trains/day, above the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
- The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for all 7 days during this past week.
- During the week ended 12/19/2022, the 7 day moving average for total trains decreased by 0.5 trains/day from the previous week, from 27.1 to 26.6 trains/day.
We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest. For the past week, the railways moved 7.6 grain trains/day, below the high of 9.4 grain trains/day achieved in October, but well above the required average.
However, during the week ending 12/19/22, four of the seven categories of rail traffic we track were below their long-term average levels. Intermodal (6.4 trains/day), coal (4.9 trains/day), and potash (0.9 trains/day) were all below their long-term average levels for the sixth week in a row. Manifest train traffic decreased significantly during the week ended 12/19/22, falling from 4.0 trains/day as of 12/12/22 to 3.1 trains/day as of 12/19, and falling back below its long-term average of about 3.5 trains/day. Petroleum traffic increased slightly during the week ending 12/19, rising to 2.7 trains/day. Other traffic was unchanged at 1.0 trains/day.
We will continue to monitor the corridor to Vancouver during the grain season and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.
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