Observations for Week (1/3/2023-1/9/2023):
- The 7-day moving average number of trains moving westbound past Chilliwack was 27.1 trains/day, above the average of 25.7 trains/day that is required to move a typical grain harvest.
- The moving average number of trains/day was above 25.7 trains/day for only 2 out of 7 days during this past week.
- During the week ended 1/9/2023, the 7-day moving average for total trains increased by 3.4 trains/day, rising from 23.7 trains/day as of 1/2 to 27.1 trains/day as of 1/9.
We estimate that about 5 grain trains/day are required to move the expected grain harvest. The railways moved an average of 8.3 grain trains/day during the week ending 1/9/2023, well above the required average.
However, as of 1/9/2023, rail traffic in four of the seven categories we track was below its long-term average level. Intermodal traffic (5.9 trains/day), coal (4.7 trains/day), and potash (1.3 trains/day) were all below their long-term average levels for the ninth week in a row. Other traffic fell to 0.6 trains/day, well below its long-term average level of 1.0 trains/day. Grain traffic (8.3 trains/day), manifest trains (3.9 trains/day), and petroleum (2.6 trains/day), were above their long-term average levels.
We will continue to monitor the corridor to Vancouver during the grain season and provide updates on trends we’re seeing.
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